2008 thus is a baseline year for the analysis. Data on life expectancy (LE) at birth for males and females in this 2008 for each Member State were obtained from Eurostat [21]. The projected changes in life expectancy at birth for males and females between 2009 and 2020 were drawn from Eurostat Population Projections 2010-based EUROPOP2010 [22]. Data on healthy life years (HLY) at birth by age, for each Member State and EU27, were drawn from Eurostat [23] that uses the standard Sullivan method for HLY calculation [24]. The prevalence of the health status under consideration in each age group divides the number of person-years into years lived with this status [25]. HLY is based on a Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) question that is a component of the Minimum European Health Module, included in the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions Survey (EU-SILC) [26,27].

The survey is organized by Eurostat. HLY thus becomes a strong indicator allowing for the effective monitoring of levels of health within and between all EU countries in a comparable and consistent way [28]. HLY in comparison to other health expectancy indicators defines healthy condition by the absence of limitations in functioning/disability while explicitly using different levels of health status. Thus it views the health positively [29]. Methods and calculations Computations of HLY projections up to 2020 were estimated under three broad scenarios for future health status of the population: (1) the compression of morbidity, (2) the expansion of morbidity, and (3) the intermediary dynamic equilibrium.

These drew on theories, as explained above, based on the extent to which health status (or morbidity/disability) of the population may change over time in relation to the growing life expectancy. The scenarios differ in terms of the expected size of the increase in life expectancy and the way in which these mortality reductions might be achieved. For each one a set of assumptions was developed. In all of them, life expectancy was expected to increase according to Eurostat projections. Additionally Scenario 1 assumed that by 2020 HLY would increase by at least the same nominal value as life expectancy and that an increase in life expectancy would be 100% healthy. Scenario 2 assumed that remaining HLY would remain the same for the projected period, and all increase in life expectancy would be 100% with activity limitations.

Scenario 3 considered AV-951 that HLY/LE ratio would remain the same and that not every increase in life expectancy would be healthy. The analysis is simplified to basic formulas based on data available for LE and HLY. Values for both LE and HLY available on Eurostat �C due to data gaps �C often limit to individual MSs and rarely provide EU27 average values. Projections of LE referred to individual member states. Therefore EU27 average values of future LE and HLY were computed.